2015年3月13日 星期五

Apple Watch 小賭注: new Android Wear ad

專題:蘋果的全新賭注Apple Watch


Apple Watch的功能和定價?


蘋果周一表示,新的智能手表電池持續使用時間長達18個小時,可以用來撥接電話、讀取信息、打開酒店房間與車庫卷門以及讀取歌詞。

入門級Apple Watch起價349美元,39毫米的不鏽鋼的Apple Watch起價549美元,42毫米的款式起價則多出50美元,黃金限量版起價10,000美元。

蘋果將從4月10日開始接受預定,Apple Watch將於4月24日在包括中國大陸在內的全球九個國家和地區同步發售。


Apple Watch的高價策略能否成功?


自去年9月份Apple Watch首度亮相以來,外界就一直在猜測這款智能手表的價格,如今這個問題有了答案。五年前,蘋果以500美元的價格發布了首款主流平板iPad,售價只相當於許多人預期的一半左右,出乎所有人的預料。iPad後來成為蘋果第二暢銷的產品,但利潤率遠低於平均水平。蘋果的目標是在快速增長的市場擴大佔有率,它做到了。

蘋果此次不走尋常路,更多地將Apple Watch定位為一種奢侈品。除黃金版外,按照尺寸和表帶類型的不同,另外兩個主要系列定價從349美元到1,099美元不等,中位價格超過700美元。該價格比競爭對手的智能手表高出一倍還多。據摩根大通估計,Apple Watch的利潤率將在39%至44%之間,躋身蘋果公司產品中利潤率最高產品之列。

蘋果從來不是低價領導者,因此上述價格並不讓人感到意外。不過Apple Watch的前景確實更難預測了。

與以往的產品不同,Apple Watch只能出售給公司現有客戶群中的部份人,也就是那些擁有iPhone 5或更新機型的客戶。同時,與iPhone的情況不同,這款手表不會從移動運營商處拿到補貼,以緩解人們的“高標價沖擊”(sticker shock)。

之前其他公司推出的智能手表均未流行開來,因此蘋果也可能敗走智能手表市場。Strategy Analytics預測,到年底時蘋果在全球智能手表市場佔有率將超過一半。雖然蘋果忠實的粉絲群體將可能確保Apple Watch發售成功,但不清楚這個群體之外的消費者對如此高價手表的接受程度。華爾街目前預計,蘋果當前財年下半年的收入將同比增長20%。考慮到下半財年通常是iPhone銷售的淡季,所以Apple Watch將是決定蘋果能否達到收入增長目標的重要因素。

除此之外,Apple Watch的銷售趨勢難以預測。高定價意味著消費者不會頻繁升級。iPad便是如此,頭三年iPad銷量迅速增長,此後趨於平穩。華爾街預計,2016財年Apple Watch收入將達到120億美元左右,2016財年末距離現在只有約18個月的時間。

在可預見的未來,蘋果業務將繼續依賴iPhone。但該公司的聲譽也將依靠其推出創新產品的能力來維持。取悅現有消費者中的富人群體不能完全實現這一目標。


細數Apple Watch的供應商


大和証券公司(Daiwa Securities)的Kylie Huang列出了一份名單:

觸控模組唯一供應商:台灣的宸鴻光電科技股份有限公司(TPK Holding Co.)

聲音和振動回饋產品供應商:瑞聲科技控股有限公司 (AAC Technologies Holdings Inc.)

石英元件供應商:晶技股份有限公司(TXC Co.)

獨家組裝商:廣達電腦股份有限公司(Quanta Computer Inc.)

半導體產品供應商:日月光半導體制造股份有限公司(Advanced Semiconductor Engineering Inc.)


中國互聯網巨頭怎樣搶佔Apple Watch這一新陣地的?


騰訊似乎具有一定的領跑優勢。據Tencent Digital稱,Apple Watch將預裝微信。高盛的研究報告寫道,如果Apple Watch像大多數蘋果產品那樣在中國市場取得成功,微信將抓住用戶將越來越多時間花在智能設備上這一契機,這對騰訊即將上市的社交廣告產品來說是個好消息。

騰訊的電子商務合作伙伴京東表示,在中國蘋果商店於4月24日發售Apple Watch和12寸Mackbook的當天,京東網站和京東微信購物入口也將同步發售這兩款產品。

阿裡巴巴當然也不甘落後。天貓上的Apple Store官方旗艦店4月10日將開始接受新產品的預訂,4月24日開始發貨。更重要的是,阿裡巴巴已經開發了Apple Watch版的支付寶錢包,未來佩戴Apple Watch的中國消費者可以在實體店用手表進行電子支付,不需要拿出智能手機。


編輯:陳佳音(jiayin.chen@wsj.com)
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Apple Watch: Let's face it, this is a really stupid idea

As well as being a useless and expensive iPhone accessory, it may actually be inconvenient, and further alienate those around you

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Apple, which once put a U2 album on everyone's iTunes without asking, announced the release date for its much anticipated Apple Watch yesterday. The device is a smartwatch, so sort of like a phone, but with a much smaller screen. And you wear it on your wrist.
According to some tech experts, “it’s not unreasonable to imagine a potential 90m Apple Watches on wrists globally by the end of 2016.” This is a message to those 90m people: don't do it. Please. There are better things to spend $17,000 (or £13,500 in the UK) on.
To be fair, not all of the Apple Watches will cost $17,000 – only the luxury “Apple Watch Edition” model will. Some of the cheaper watches will cost as little as $349 (£299). But the $17,000 price is important, because it signifies a betrayal of Apple's previous commitment to producing high quality products at a mass-market level.
The price positions the Apple Watch as a luxury, which indicates that he watch itself is essentially useless. Luxury products are not distinguished by their utility, but by their price tag. Their point is not be useful, but to show how much money their owner has, and, indeed, they are more effective at demonstrating wealth the less useful they are: only the very rich can afford to spend thousands of dollars on nothing at all.
The Apple Watch falls perfectly into this category. Its use is best currently described as "it can do all the things your smartphone does, but on your wrist, and on a smaller screen." It can't actually work without an iPhone; it is a $17,000 iPhone accessory.

Worse than being useless, it may actually be inconvenient. Some early users have complained that the interface is not particularly intuitive, and takes a while to learn. The watch is meant to stay dark until the wearer raises her arm, and might require users to wave their arms around a lot.
Added to the social stigma associated with checking a watch, I can't see this waving requirement endearing many Apple Watch users to those around them. Imagine sitting in a meeting or on a date, waving your arm around for a bit, then casually looking at your watch to see whether you've got any emails. I think it's safe to say there may be some social teething problems.
The Apple Watch may not be that convenient when you're on your own either. It has an 18 hour battery life given a normal day's use, so you'll need to charge it every day (and the Apple page on battery lifeuses the phrase “actual results may vary” an awful lot). To charge it, you'll need a special cable that won't be compatible with anything else you own, and you'll have to carry it around with you too, unless all your friends have Apple Watches as well.The Apple Watch also allows its wearer to transport themselves into a desert with the model Christy TurlingtonThe Apple Watch also allows its wearer to transport themselves into a desert with the model Christy Turlington
Buying the Apple Watch might also prove arduous. Before its release, it will be available by appointment to try on, and after release you will only be able to buy it in stores by reservation.
These minor inconveniences mask more insidious problems. A device that functions as a gatekeeper for people who receive too much information on their iPhones will inevitably encourage more information to be sent.
Also, Cook isn't lying when he says the Apple Watch was “the most personal device [Apple] have ever created. It’s not just with you, it’s on you.” This very intimacy is problematic: it represents a further intrusion of the busy world of notifications and ads into modern life. The watch will normalise, with its soft notifying vibrations on your wrist, the connection of the world of data and the physical body. “Wearable” computing is the start of the drift from owning computers to have computers inside of us: it is not a great conceptual leap from Google Glass to eye implants, or from the Apple Watch to having a chip in your arm that gives you a small electric shock every time your boss sends you a message.
These dystopias are all in the future though. For now, the Apple Watch is a weird luxury, and the question remains: do you really want to pay $17,000 – or even $349 – to get more email? 

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