2012年12月6日 星期四

蘋果為何放過宏達電?不直接告Google?

Eric Schmidt 接受WSJ 訪問 :他搞不清楚為什麼不直接告Google
讀者你說呢?Google's Explainer-in-Chief Can't Explain Apple
Wall Street Journal
Google's former CEO and current executive chairman met with lawmakers in Washington last week as the Federal Trade Commission appeared closer to a decision on whether to file an antitrust suit against the company. In September, Mr. Schmidt was in ...
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蘋果為何放過宏達電?


如果你是世界重量級拳王,你的敵人已經被你逼入牆角。

  此時,你會再出一記重拳,完全擊倒敵人,拿下勝利腰帶?還是伸出友誼之手,拉起這個即將丟出白毛巾的對手,握手言和,共用拳擊場上的榮耀?

  全球市值最大企業,蘋果公司執行長提姆·庫克(Tim Cook)無疑正是全球科技界的世界重量級拳王,他的對手宏達電兩周前(10月26日)才剛宣佈,2012年第四季預估營業利益率僅剩1%,等於提前宣告 面臨虧損邊緣;接著,11月6日更公告,10月營收創下8個月來新低,市值一年半來已蒸發超過9000億元的宏達電,未來的前景在所有的外資分析師眼中, 幾乎已經等於送入加護病房,正在等待急救。

空前大和解:庫克破例發新聞,持有專利也互享

  20天后,美國法院針對蘋果控告宏達電的侵權官司,即將宣判。以在美國蘋果控告三星官司為例,所有的事證,在在顯示都對蘋果有利,所有的人,包括兩年前決定向宏達電提告的已逝蘋果創辦人賈伯斯(Steve Jobs),恐怕都會選擇揮出專利戰重拳。

  但庫克卻作出一個令全世界都難以置信的決定。

  11月11日,一封蘋果與宏達電聯合掛名的聲明稿,震撼全球科技界!短短208字聲明的內容是:「HTC與Apple已達成全球和解協議,此協議包含雙方所有專利訴訟均撤銷並簽訂期間為10年之專利授權契約。本件專利授權範圍涵蓋雙方現有與未來所持有的專利。」

  庫克甚至史無前例地與宏達電一起發新聞稿,親自表示:「我們很欣慰能與HTC達成和解,我們會繼續聚焦在產品創新。」

  也就是說,從現在開始的未來10年內,蘋果不只不會對宏達電發動法律攻擊,並且連它涵蓋面極廣的專利內容,都通過交叉授權的方式,分享給宏達電使用。

  「這是前所未見的大利多!過去30年來,不要說是對手,就連合作夥伴,蘋果也從來沒對任何一家公司這麼慷慨過」,一位擁有10年專利訴訟經驗的律師說。

  儘管研究機構Sterne Agee猜測,未來宏達電每賣出一支手機最高就要付蘋果6到8美元的授權金,換算成毛利率,每支會減少近3%利潤。若以1年3500萬部出貨量算,宏達電 2013年須付2800萬美元的費用給蘋果,代價不小,但總算是買到一件金鐘罩鐵布衫,足以在未來避開許多不確定性。

  問題是,除了多拿到一筆錢之外,這對蘋果究竟有什麼好處?「如果賈伯斯還在世,這件事情根本不可能發生。」曾任三星與宏達電Android系統顧問,仕橙3G教室技術總監陳俊指出。

  2010年3月,蘋果控告宏達電的12款手機,侵犯iPhone 20多項專利,大動作引爆智慧型手機的專利戰火。

  當時賈伯斯親自發表聲明:「我們認為良性競爭是有益的,但對手應使用自己的原創技術,而不是剽竊我們的(專利)。我們可以起身行動或坐視競爭對手竊取我們的專利發明,我們已下定決心要採取法律行動。」

  賈伯斯對於Android系統,可以說是恨之入骨。根據《賈伯斯傳》作者艾薩克森(Walter Isaacson)的引述,賈伯斯曾說:「他們不是小偷,而是大盜。我要摧毀Android,因為這根本就是偷來的東西。我要發動熱核戰,讓他們活活被嚇 死。」在賈伯斯眼中,Google只有搜尋引擎做得不錯,其他像Android和Google文件「簡直狗屎不如!」

  之所以賈伯斯會如此生氣,是因為蘋果開發出iPhone、iPad等劃時代創新產品時,Google前CEO施密特(Eric Schmidt)還是蘋果董事會成員。而就在iPhone問世沒多久以後,施密特離職,接著宏達電就推出了Android平臺的手機,不僅同樣標榜著多點 觸控技術、滑動解鎖等功能,外型與質感也幾乎雷同。

  時間點與結果都如此巧合,讓賈伯斯有一種被騙的感覺,他在《賈伯斯傳》中非常憤怒地說:「他們就是要置iPhone于死地,我們絕不能讓他得逞!」雖然告的對像是宏達電,但事實上,他是在對Google提出警告。
然而,他辭世才一年,接班人就打破了鐵則,來了個180度的大轉彎,這又是怎麼回事?

  「只要庫克當家,蘋果寧願想方法設法解決分歧,而較不願意與對手對簿公堂。」

  波士頓揚基集團(Yankee Group)分析師侯艾(Carl Howe)說。艾薩克森也曾說過:「賈伯斯不會願意和解,但庫克會。」

  庫克的個性和賈伯斯完全相反。賈伯斯是個偏執的藝術家,凡事追求浪漫與完美,對於原則也有高度堅持。庫克卻是務實的執行者,素有「報表先生(Mr. Spreadsheet)」之稱的他,擅長冷靜分析,所有的決定都是根據數字,權衡利害得失後才做出。

  在專利上,過去賈伯斯帶領蘋果的一貫態度是不授權,以專利鞏固使用者的獨特使用經驗,一旦覺得遭受侵犯,就是對戰到底,這是這位傳奇CEO對自己研發成果的堅持。

  但是善於閱讀數字的庫克,卻讀到了專利權大戰之外,一個更不利蘋果的變化。

宏達電為何能和解?停戰前還在送證據,一度驚動聯合國

  根據本刊獨家拆解蘋果、宏達電雙方法律訴訟12份文件往來紀錄顯示,蘋果對宏達電的專利戰爭從2010年3月開始,直到2012年的10月31日,雙方的攻防都仍相當激烈。

  尤其宏達電,對蘋果的專利攻擊,同一時間從守勢改採攻勢,從2012年2月至10月,光單一訴訟雙方就向美國法院進行了62次文件攻防。

  蘋果則是在2012年6月,提出反托拉斯訴訟,指控宏達電濫用4G專利,違反反托拉斯法,甚至驚動聯合國電信聯盟出面開會調停。

  從法院紀錄分析,宏達電是邊打邊談,打到和談結束前一刻,直到和解宣佈前10天,宏達電都還在遞新證據,準備言辭辯論。這顯示,雙方是在戰爭中摸索著尋求互信與和解基礎。

庫克為何棄戰?蘋果打宏達電,反拉抬三星市佔率

  原本,宏達電是美國智慧型手機市場中Android的王者,但在蘋果的專利戰強攻下,宏達電的確遭受到了壓制,蘋果表面上看起來得到勝利,但實際上,並未從這場專利大戰中獲益。

  2012年第三季,三星的全球市佔率已經超過3成,比前一年成長超過10個百分點,蘋果的市佔率最高峰時也未越過25%,宏達電從單季最高的10.7%,下滑到現在的4.07%。流失的市佔率不只沒有給蘋果帶來好處,反而讓三星漁翁得利。

  最明顯的,是2012年5月,美國海關因蘋果的專利權官司而卡住宏達電銷往美國的手機,因此2012年第二季,與宏達電同為Android陣營的三星市佔率,就比前一季成長了3個百分點,蘋果打宏達電等於免費奉送三星3個百分點的成長率。

  擁有美國律師資格,「有物報告」網站創辦人周欽華認為,庫克並非不在乎使用者的獨特使用經驗。但當他發現Android的市佔率並沒有因為這些訴訟而減少時,務實的他,已經發現蘋果與宏達電的這場戰爭,沒有打下去的必要。

和局,是蘋果與宏達電雙方最好的選擇,只是令人訝異的是,庫克竟然加碼與宏達電進行10年的專利交叉授權,這一步棋,可說是庫克把宏達電變成了刺殺三星的秘密武器。

  「這是excellent strategy(絕佳策略)!蘋果這一招,可說是一舉數得」,臺大國企係教授湯明哲點出其中關鍵。

  湯明哲觀察,Android陣營打到現在,已經從規格戰走向價格戰,一旦如此,三星必然坐大,這是蘋果不希望見到的結果,因此「它必須要釋出手上的資源,培養一個可以對付三星的高手。」

  但這個高手的挑選就很重要,「太弱的,扶不起來,給了資源也沒用;太強的,還怕它反過來咬你一口」,湯明哲說。

  宏達電,恰巧就處在這樣一個位置上。「你說它現在有多厲害也不是,但也不能說它無足輕重,就這麼剛好生不生、死不死的掛在那裏,」湯明哲說。

  更積極來看,「未來蘋果還可能靠宏達電,從Android陣營中撈到一點好處」,湯明哲說。綜合起來,是一個雙贏的局面。

  雖然蘋果2012年在對三星的專利戰爭中,打了一場獲賠逾10億美元的大勝仗,但對不缺現金的蘋果來說,這只是贏了面子,三星的市佔率並未因此而下降。

  這裡,凸顯了這兩強對決,蘋果無法佔上風的原因。蘋果與三星分屬兩個不同的作業系統,消費者若不買蘋果,Android是目前最具吸引力的選擇。而要削弱三星在Android陣營中的影響力,唯一的方法,就是在Android陣營中,培養出一個可與三星抗衡的對手。

  因此,蘋果與宏達電不僅達成和解,甚至破天荒地與宏達電簽訂10年的專利交互授權合約,蘋果對宏達電的態度才會從一開始的欲除之而後快,轉變成為現在的力挺。

  一位王雪紅核心幕僚指出,「雖然這樣講不太好,但我們絕不否認,HTC是唯一可在美國市場與三星一較高下的Android陣營的品牌。在中國市場,大 家說我們輸給中興,變成第五名,這個數字的計算基礎是有問題的,我們是只玩(人民幣)1500元以上的市場,根本不玩(人民幣)800元以下的低價市 場。」

  堅持走中高價路線,不打低價戰爭的宏達電執行長周永明,2012年曾不斷被外資分析師唱衰,即使近一年宏達電連續調降兩次財測,他也不願鬆口打低價戰。

  如今這個堅持,終於等到了契機。跟三星一樣走中高價路線的周永明,才能夠成為庫克心目中,夠格扮演狙殺三星智慧型手機市場的蘋果刺客。(撰文:林俊劭、林宏達,《商業週刊》)




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