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兩字眼說明:switcheroo and headlock
BERKELEY, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- Make no mistake, at this point in the history of technology, Google Inc. is the tail that wags the dog.
Despite the failure of the company to make predicted numbers, most would agree that the blip was fully accounted for by a minor, one-time write-off. See story on Google earnings.
A friend of mine and others have pointed out that if Google (GOOG : ![]()
GOOG511.89, +3.89, +0.8% ) had not changed some procedures it would have beaten the numbers easily, and we can assume that that will continue to be the case.
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But more interesting is the deal brewing between Google and Sprint Nextel Corp, along with the 700-MHz spectrum grab that may occur. What do you get if you combine the spectrum with Google and Sprint?
What you get is AT&T Inc. put in a headlock. Hear me out on this one; it's a gem of a strategy.
Early last year, the chief executive of AT&T, Edward Whitacre, shot off his mouth about how Google was getting a "free ride" on "his" network, and perhaps how a company like that should be nicked for higher fees. Ever since then, Google has been stewing in its own juices over the notion.
Whitacre almost made it sound as if Google somehow had free access, and was sponging off the AT&T network for nothing.
In fact, Google pays millions of dollars to be on the Internet. That said, the company must have realized right then that it was indeed at the mercy of AT&T, if Whitacre actually did want to mess things up.
AT&T could develop its own search engine, for example, and degrade the Google connections while enhancing connections to its own service. Phone companies have a history of such shenanigans.
It was at that point where Google had to begin to think about a defense, and suddenly we were hearing about Google getting involved in municipal Wi-Fi networks.
More recently, Google puts a down payment on the soon-to-emerge 700-MHz spectrum now occupied by analog broadcast television. This spectrum could be extremely valuable once released in 2009. See related story.
The 700-MHz spectrum is valuable because it can penetrate walls with ease, making it perfect for wireless Internet connectivity within a home. Within days, we then hear about Google teaming up with Sprint with some vague WiMax plans.
Sprint already has been in the wireless Internet business when it was test-marketing its Wireless Broadband Connect, which was a point-to-point line of sight system that I myself used in the late 1990s.
Sprint discontinued the service, thinking that it could make an effortless transition to WiMax or any number of other wireless designs that were not line-of-sight, but could penetrate trees and walls and other impediments. Apparently, no satisfactory substitute emerged.
Part of the problem was the spectrum itself. This might be solved by the 700-MHz spectrum and newer technologies.
If the duo can roll out national service, it could protect Google from any onerous action by Ma Bell. And if the service was popular enough, Google could actually limit what it offers AT&T customers -- making its most premium search services only available to the Sprint-Google network.
If Google maintains dominance in search (as appears to be the case), it could turn the tables on AT&T and demand that the company pay Google for carriage of its services.
This would make the original AT&T threat an ironic reality, with diminished services on the AT&T network. Wouldn't that be funny?
This sort of thing is not unprecedented; the cable TV business has seen similar turnabouts regarding who pays who.
Imagine a world of three Internet service providers such as AT&T, Comcast Corp. and Sprint-Google. Let's say two of the services, Comcast and Sprint-Google, have Google search and all the Google applications while AT&T has nothing.
How long would AT&T last as an ISP with this sort of handicap? Not long is my guess.
Google is indeed in the tech driver's seat. 
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