A New Tool Aims to Help Facebook Users Dig Deep
By VINDU GOEL
Facebook is planning to introduce Graph Search, a tool to help users
sift the volumes of information on the site, and its success is
important to the company's future.
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蘋果的下一個重大飛躍
蘋
果公司(Apple Inc. AAPL -0.80% )的觸角到現在還沒有伸至全球最大的一個潛在iPhone買家群體──中國移動(China Mobile HK:941 -1.92% )的用戶。這一局面將會發生變化。而何時以及如何變化將決定這家美國科技巨頭低迷的股價能否重拾升勢。目前蘋果股價在每股395美元左右，已較去年9月份創下的歷史高位下跌了44%。最近蘋果也將全球市值第一大公司的桂冠還給了埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil XOM +0.97% )。經淨現金調整後，其市值也剛剛為競爭對手谷歌(Google GOOG +0.80% )所超越。
AP
而 全球第一大無線運營商、擁有超過7億用戶的中國移動的缺席最為引人注目。匯豐(HSBC)分析師Tucker Grinnan估計，在中國移動的逾7億用戶中，有大約8,000萬可以負擔價格不菲的iPhone。匯豐還稱，考慮到蘋果目前在中國高端智能手機市場的 份額達到55%，在上述精英團體中，超過一半的用戶可能會選擇購買iPhone。實際上，已經有超過2,000萬的中國移動用戶在使用“解鎖版”的 iPhone，運行中國移動老舊的2G網絡。
2012年iPhone銷量為2.61億部。對於蘋果來說，這潛在的數千萬部iPhone銷量代表著一個巨大的機遇。而同時壓力也在增加，據Strategy Analytics稱，第一季度蘋果在中國總體智能手機市場的份額從上年同期的13%降至9%。
因此蘋果投資者在焦急的等待蘋果與中國移動達成某種形式的協議，尤其是在去年秋季iPhone 5發布之後。這是第一款能夠與中國移動的3G網絡兼容的iPhone機型。
而雙方至今尚未達成協議的一個原因可能是，中國移動的控股股東中國政府還不希望該公司出售iPhone。中國移動是國內電信領域第一大鱷，若中國移動開始銷售廣受歡迎的蘋果產品，可能會加劇市場集中度，而這是中國政府不願意看到的。
另外蘋果方面的一個問題可能是，該公司不願意降低用戶體驗質量。中國移動版本的3G網絡被稱為TD-SCDMA，其穩定性不及中國電信(China Telecom HK:728 -2.67% )和中國聯通(China Unicom HK:762 -2.67% )的3G網絡。
不過，以下幾個因素預示著蘋果公司與中國移動終將達成協議。
首 先，中國移動正計劃推出4G網絡TD-LTE。該網絡的數據傳輸速度會快得多，而iPhone與這一技術相兼容。由於中資企業正在銷售配套設備，中國希望 能在全球范圍推廣這一技術。中國移動已經成為TD-LTE設備的大買家，其2013年的資本支出預算達到310億美元，幾乎相當於美國電話電報公司與 Verizon Communications資本支出的總和。如果能夠將iPhone納入這一網絡標準，就會為該技術的推廣增添動能。
另外，如果中國監管部門像一些人所預料那樣放開對手機用戶攜號轉網的限制，那麼有關市場集中度上升的風險可能會在今年晚些時候降低。
蘋果與中國移動達成交易的一個潛在障礙就是高昂的智能手機補貼。到目前為止，蘋果公司一直能夠憑藉巨大的市場號召力與網絡運營商達成很劃算的交易。在此類交易中，網絡運營商為iPhone的成本提供大量補貼，因為這樣做可以吸引用戶接受昂貴的無線服務計劃。
但 蘋果公司的這種條款似乎已經給電信運營商帶來了巨大的財務負擔，而中國移動也要面對這個問題。中國聯通在2009年末成為首家推出iPhone合約的中國 無線網絡運營商。但中國聯通的財務報告顯示，從當年至2011年末，盡管移動業務經營利潤的絕對數量增加，但利潤率卻從37%降至27%。中國移動的業務 規模以及蘋果公司對重新獲得發展動能的渴求或許會使中國移動擁有較有利的談判地位。
對蘋果公司來說，中國移動到底有怎樣的重要意 義？Sanford C. Bernstein的分析師Toni Sacconaghi稱，蘋果公司iPhone業務的毛利率過去一般在55%左右。考慮到中國移動潛在的談判籌碼，假設蘋果公司通過中國移動銷售 iPhone的毛利率只有40%，如果第一年因此多銷售2,500萬部iPhone，就意味著會增加60億美元的毛利。
這將給蘋果的業績帶來顯著提振：分析師預計，截至2014年9月末的財政年度，蘋果公司的毛利潤為690億美元。
在技術以及戰略目標日趨一致的情況下，對iPhone和中國移動來說，達成協議只是時間問題。對蘋果公司來說，革命性的新產品可能一直都在籌備之中。但如果能在中國市場達成協議，將是蘋果短期內最大的潛在利潤增長點之一。
Rolfe Winkler
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