2013年1月22日 星期二

News 塑造未來的數字世界

谷歌第四財季淨利潤增長6.7%
 谷歌第四財政季度利潤增長6.7%﹐受該公司收入持續增加的提振。不過谷歌在維持目前廣告銷售額增速水平上仍面臨挑戰。







塑造未來的數字世界
英國《金融時報》 理查•沃特斯 報導

你從中得到的內容並不重要,關鍵是你輸入的資訊。

這就是Facebook最近推出的名稱平淡無奇的新“社交”搜索引擎——Graph Search的真正意義所在。Facebook這家可能比任何其他公司都瞭解你們的公司,現在希望大家能夠透露另一個非常有價值的資訊:你們想要什麼?

很長時間以來人們就普遍預期Facebook將進一步深入搜索領域,這是意料之中的。在人們的某項需求最強烈的時候,預測他們的需要和意圖,這其中的商業意義難以估量。在搜索引擎方面這點表現最為明顯。

媒體傳播機構實力媒體(ZenithOptimedia)對整個市場的評估顯示,需求預測方面全球當之無愧的領導者谷歌(Google)去年吸走了48.5%的全球線上廣告業務。這一比例甚至高於2011年,使得谷歌有望在今年或者明年吞噬整個英特網廣告業務的一半以上。


使用手機上網的人數越來越多,因而這其中的利害關係就更大了。至少從智慧手機方面來看,是否能夠傳遞相關、及時、有用的商業資訊,已經成為決定成敗的東西。馬克•紮克伯格(Mark Zuckerberg)在為Graph Search揭幕的時候沒有提到“移動”這個詞,這引起了人們的注意。但這不應抹殺他的真正意圖。Facebook最近將自己稱為以“移動為先”的公司,並致力於為世界提供一個更容易搜索的社交資料庫。

智慧手機現在的功能已經超越了任何其他技術:導航、個人助理、可靠的資訊提供者,它已經成為數位生活的遙控器。為這一新的平臺重新打造Facebook已經如火如荼地展開。目前為止,該公司的複雜PC服務已經轉變為一系列簡單化的移動應用程式,比如消息傳送和照片分享。

從自然語言方面看最近發佈的搜索服務:輸入單詞,Facebook就會試著推斷你的意思,然後回饋一些有用的東西。根據其自然結論,Facebook對未來的預想就是,你可以對著設備隨便說點什麼,然後它就將根據你周圍的社交圈子給出相關性最大的答案。語音啟動,自然語言查詢,聽上去是不是很熟悉?

蘋果(Apple)Siri搶先一步展示了什麼是可能的,即使技術還沒有完全準備好。如果Facebook可以解決這個問題,那麼肯定不缺乏投資的廣告商。

不幸的是,說得容易做到難,這其中不僅涉及大量的技術挑戰。

一個問題就是Facebook擅長處理的搜索要求的範圍有限。或許你喜歡發佈對自己喜歡的電影或者餐館的評論,但沒有多少人會討論最喜歡的感冒藥或者他們認為最可靠的水管工。這種綜合性的欠缺是Google“網路起始頁”的地位將很難被複製的一個原因。另一個問題是,Facebook能從其唾手可得的資訊中挖到多少價值。就算其用戶再喜歡再偏愛它,Facebook社交網路的私人資料庫依然不能與整個網路相比。

或許你並不會僅僅因為一個朋友喜歡一家餐館你就會喜歡:有時候,Yelp上數千個志趣相投的陌生人的觀點確實是更好的嚮導。由於任何人都可以“跟隨”風尚引領者和意見領袖,其影響力就可以像在TwitterFacebook上一樣迅速傳播。然而,作為一個社交中心,Facebook的吸引力很可能會吸收越來越多的這種用戶產生的內容。剩下的內容Google也將越來越難以染指。它與YelpTwitter這類公司在利用後者內容上的鬥爭就是證明。

Google直到現在才準備好推出其Google Plus社交網路。

新的搜索戰線已經拉開。從處理產品相關搜索多於任何其他公司的亞馬遜(Amazon),到基於iPhone的蘋果Siri,再到現在的Facebook社交搜索,新的“參戰者”將借助各自的相對優勢開戰。

這場戰爭以及智慧手機硬體和作業系統之間競爭的結果,將決定未來數字世界的模樣。

本文作者理查•沃特斯是英國《金融時報》美國西海岸主編

譯者/王慧玲


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