蘋果“Siri”語音數據最多保存兩年，隱私政策引發擔憂 《WIRED》
News Analysis
After Apple’s Rise, a Bruising Fall
April 22, 2013
Where’s the old love, Apple?
Wall Street has turned viciously on its one-time iDarling. The rout in Apple’s share price — it fell nearly 2.7 percent on Thursday, bringing the damage since late September to 44 percent — has many wondering when, and where, all of this will end.
The answer, of course, is that no one really knows. Yes, Apple is
slowing, as companies inevitably do. But Apple remains enormously
profitable and the envy of corporations worldwide.
And yet Apple’s decline in the stock market has been so swift and so brutal that the development has begun to change the way investors view the company. Apple no longer looks like a sure thing.
It is a remarkable turn in one of the standout stock market stories of recent years. Only seven months ago, Apple’s share price raced above $700 to a record high, making Apple the most valuable company on the planet. By Thursday, the stock had sunk to $392.05, closing below $400 for the first time since late 2011.
The proximate cause of Thursday’s decline was news this week of a glut of audio chips at one of Apple’s suppliers. That, in turn, prompted concern that sales of iPhones might fall short of expectations.
But that was just one more bit of downbeat news in what has been a downbeat few months. All told, $290 billion has been wiped off Apple’s value since September. It might seem difficult to believe, but Apple now ranks among the biggest losers in the stock market over the last seven months, right next to the J. C. Penney Company, that sick man of American department stores. The last time Apple was trading this low was in November 2011. Steve Jobs had just died and everyone wondered how Apple would carry on without its visionary leader.
Stock price aside, Apple is bigger and, by some measures, stronger today that it was then. It sells more iPhones and iPads than ever. It is expanding its global reach. And it is making so much money — analysts expect the company to report another solid quarter next week — that it has been having trouble figuring out what to do with all of its cash. Speculation is rife that Apple might pass some cash to shareholders in the form of an increased stock dividend.
On one level, the Apple story is a common one on Wall Street: what goes up also goes down. As Apple’s stock price soared in recent years, some pointed out that the company’s sales couldn’t keep growing — and its share price couldn’t keep rising — at that rapid pace forever. In hindsight, Apple’s surge above $700 strikes some as irrational, as does its precipitous plunge back below $400.
“Overexuberance on the upside leads to herd behavior and panic during the correction,” said Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, an professor of behavioral finance at U.C.L.A. “People just panic and the stress hormone kicks in.”
One issue is that Apple is a favorite stock among individual investors. The investment firm SigFig estimated last fall that 17 percent of all retail investors owned Apple stock, four times the number that owns the average stock in the Dow Jones industrial average.
Trading by retail investors can be amplified by hedge funds, who see everyday investors piling in and push in the opposite direction by shorting the stock, betting it will decline. The so-called short interest in Apple reached a peak last November, but hasn’t gone down much since then, according to data from Nasdaq.
Aswath Damodaran, professor of finance at New York University, said the enthusiasm surrounding Apple last year prompted him to sell his own holdings in the company when the stock was around $610.
“I was terrified by the kinds of investors coming into Apple’s stock,” said Mr. Damodaran. “Not only were they coming in with unrealistic expectations, they were at war with each other.”
Recently, Mr. Damodaran began buying shares again, convinced that the fears had gone too far.
“Right now, Apple is being priced as though it has no future growth,” he said.
Indeed, Apple looks cheap by the most popular way of gauging a stock’s value, the amount of profit it generates for each outstanding share. Investors are willing to pay about $15 for a dollar of profit of the average Standard & Poor’s 500 company. But for Apple, they will pay less than $9.
At its current price, investors are betting that Apple will grow more slowly than the average American company. And they are ignoring the enormous pile of cash that Apple has built up, which it could hand out to shareholders tomorrow if it wanted.
The cash, and Apple’s apparent inability to find a use for it, has taken some of the blame for the stock’s recent performance.
Toni Sacconaghi, an analyst at Bernstein Research, said that if Apple developed a clear plan to use some of its cash to pay dividends to shareholders it would help the company’s shares, perhaps lifting them 10 percent or more. But that will not return Apple shares to their glory days. He said the bigger problem bearish investors saw with Apple’s shares was more straightforward: growth is stalling.
“That’s the story,” he said.
During the fiscal second quarter that Apple will report next Tuesday, Mr. Sacconaghi predicts that Apple will post an 18 percent decline in net income, as less lucrative products eat into its profit margins. In 2012 during that same period, Apple almost doubled its net income from the same period in 2011.
Still, this is Apple — the company that produces some of the most popular products in the world. While Mr. Jobs is no longer around, almost all the people who worked with him are still there.
One thing is sure: the shift in sentiment has been a big change for Apple bulls like Gene Munster, an analyst at Piper Jaffray. He still sees host of opportunities for growth ahead. He said that, for instance, Apple could play a big role in mobile payments.
But it’s no longer easy being an Apple bull.
“It’s like getting a beating every day coming into work,” Mr. Munster said. “Investors are so negative, they want to take it out on somebody. I feel like I end up being that guy.”
蘋果公司第二財季利潤下滑18%
蘋果公司第二財政季度利潤下滑18%﹐受利潤率收窄拖纍。
《福布斯》：蘋果CEO面臨下台壓力
蘋果在中國的道路遭遇坎坷
Wall Street has turned viciously on its one-time iDarling. The rout in Apple’s share price — it fell nearly 2.7 percent on Thursday, bringing the damage since late September to 44 percent — has many wondering when, and where, all of this will end.
按图放大
Eric Risberg/Associated Press
An iPad, left, with an iPad Mini. Apple enjoys robust sales and is expanding around the world, but its stock price is declining.
And yet Apple’s decline in the stock market has been so swift and so brutal that the development has begun to change the way investors view the company. Apple no longer looks like a sure thing.
It is a remarkable turn in one of the standout stock market stories of recent years. Only seven months ago, Apple’s share price raced above $700 to a record high, making Apple the most valuable company on the planet. By Thursday, the stock had sunk to $392.05, closing below $400 for the first time since late 2011.
The proximate cause of Thursday’s decline was news this week of a glut of audio chips at one of Apple’s suppliers. That, in turn, prompted concern that sales of iPhones might fall short of expectations.
But that was just one more bit of downbeat news in what has been a downbeat few months. All told, $290 billion has been wiped off Apple’s value since September. It might seem difficult to believe, but Apple now ranks among the biggest losers in the stock market over the last seven months, right next to the J. C. Penney Company, that sick man of American department stores. The last time Apple was trading this low was in November 2011. Steve Jobs had just died and everyone wondered how Apple would carry on without its visionary leader.
Stock price aside, Apple is bigger and, by some measures, stronger today that it was then. It sells more iPhones and iPads than ever. It is expanding its global reach. And it is making so much money — analysts expect the company to report another solid quarter next week — that it has been having trouble figuring out what to do with all of its cash. Speculation is rife that Apple might pass some cash to shareholders in the form of an increased stock dividend.
On one level, the Apple story is a common one on Wall Street: what goes up also goes down. As Apple’s stock price soared in recent years, some pointed out that the company’s sales couldn’t keep growing — and its share price couldn’t keep rising — at that rapid pace forever. In hindsight, Apple’s surge above $700 strikes some as irrational, as does its precipitous plunge back below $400.
“Overexuberance on the upside leads to herd behavior and panic during the correction,” said Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, an professor of behavioral finance at U.C.L.A. “People just panic and the stress hormone kicks in.”
One issue is that Apple is a favorite stock among individual investors. The investment firm SigFig estimated last fall that 17 percent of all retail investors owned Apple stock, four times the number that owns the average stock in the Dow Jones industrial average.
Trading by retail investors can be amplified by hedge funds, who see everyday investors piling in and push in the opposite direction by shorting the stock, betting it will decline. The so-called short interest in Apple reached a peak last November, but hasn’t gone down much since then, according to data from Nasdaq.
Aswath Damodaran, professor of finance at New York University, said the enthusiasm surrounding Apple last year prompted him to sell his own holdings in the company when the stock was around $610.
“I was terrified by the kinds of investors coming into Apple’s stock,” said Mr. Damodaran. “Not only were they coming in with unrealistic expectations, they were at war with each other.”
Recently, Mr. Damodaran began buying shares again, convinced that the fears had gone too far.
“Right now, Apple is being priced as though it has no future growth,” he said.
Indeed, Apple looks cheap by the most popular way of gauging a stock’s value, the amount of profit it generates for each outstanding share. Investors are willing to pay about $15 for a dollar of profit of the average Standard & Poor’s 500 company. But for Apple, they will pay less than $9.
At its current price, investors are betting that Apple will grow more slowly than the average American company. And they are ignoring the enormous pile of cash that Apple has built up, which it could hand out to shareholders tomorrow if it wanted.
The cash, and Apple’s apparent inability to find a use for it, has taken some of the blame for the stock’s recent performance.
Toni Sacconaghi, an analyst at Bernstein Research, said that if Apple developed a clear plan to use some of its cash to pay dividends to shareholders it would help the company’s shares, perhaps lifting them 10 percent or more. But that will not return Apple shares to their glory days. He said the bigger problem bearish investors saw with Apple’s shares was more straightforward: growth is stalling.
“That’s the story,” he said.
During the fiscal second quarter that Apple will report next Tuesday, Mr. Sacconaghi predicts that Apple will post an 18 percent decline in net income, as less lucrative products eat into its profit margins. In 2012 during that same period, Apple almost doubled its net income from the same period in 2011.
Still, this is Apple — the company that produces some of the most popular products in the world. While Mr. Jobs is no longer around, almost all the people who worked with him are still there.
One thing is sure: the shift in sentiment has been a big change for Apple bulls like Gene Munster, an analyst at Piper Jaffray. He still sees host of opportunities for growth ahead. He said that, for instance, Apple could play a big role in mobile payments.
But it’s no longer easy being an Apple bull.
“It’s like getting a beating every day coming into work,” Mr. Munster said. “Investors are so negative, they want to take it out on somebody. I feel like I end up being that guy.”
蘋果公司第二財季利潤下滑18%
蘋果公司第二財政季度利潤下滑18%﹐受利潤率收窄拖纍。《福布斯》：蘋果CEO面臨下台壓力
蘋果在中國的道路遭遇坎坷
失去喬布斯的蘋果在華爾街失寵了
, 聯合報道 2013年04月22日
蘋果啊，往日的愛意都到哪裡去了？
華爾街一度視蘋果公司(Apple)為它的i寵兒，但現在卻對它滿懷惡意。周四，蘋果股價下跌近2.7%。由此，它自去年9月以來已累積重挫44%。蘋果股價的暴跌，已經讓許多人開始思考，這種局面什麼時候、到什麼地步才會結束。
答案當然是沒有人真正知道。蘋果的增長的確在放緩，企業不可避免地都會這樣。然而蘋果的利潤仍然相當豐厚，仍然是全世界企業羨慕的對象。
然而由於蘋果在股市的下挫如此之快、如此激烈，這樣的情景已經開始改變投資者對蘋果公司的看法。蘋果的前景已經不再顯得那麼肯定了。
對於近幾年來股市上表現出色的個股之一，蘋果股價的轉變很值得一提。僅僅7個月前，蘋果的股價還衝過了700美元，創下歷史高位，蘋果公司也成為了地球上最有價值的公司。周四，該公司股價已經跌至392.05美元，這是2011年底以來，收市價首次跌破400美元。
造成周四下跌最可能的原因是本周的一則新聞，蘋果的一家供應商出現了音頻芯片積壓。這進而又促使人們產生了iPhone銷量低於預期的擔憂。
不過這也只是股價看跌的幾個月時間裡，又一則負面的消息而已。從去年9月以來，蘋果公司市值已經蒸發了2900億美元。這可能看來難以置信，但是現 在，蘋果已成為過去7個月中市值損失最多的公司之一，跟在美國彭尼公司(J. C. Penney Company)之後，後者可是美國百貨商店領域裡的病夫。蘋果股價上一次跌到這個程度是在2011年11月，當時史蒂夫·喬布斯(Steve Jobs)剛剛去世，所有人都在思考，蘋果離開了這位遠見卓識的領導人物，該怎樣繼續前進。
除了股價之外，現在的蘋果公司與當時相比規模已經更大了，從某些角度衡量，也更強了。蘋果公司iPhone和iPad的銷量比以往任何時候都要多， 在全球市場的覆蓋也在不斷擴大。而且蘋果公司太賺錢了，以至於都搞不明白該拿這些現金做些什麼了。分析人士預期，該公司下周還會再發佈一份喜人的季度業績 報告。普遍的預測是，蘋果會以增發股息的形式，將一部分現金交給股東。
在某種程度上，蘋果的經歷在華爾街上是很常見的，會漲上去，自然就會降下來。隨着蘋果股價在近幾年的飆升，有人指出該公司的銷售額以及股價，並不會一直以這樣的速度上升。回過頭看，有人會認為蘋果股價突破700美元並不理智，大幅跌回400美元也一樣。
“由於上揚時投資者過於樂觀，導致在股價調整時出現羊群效應和恐慌，”加州大學洛杉磯分校(UCLA)行為金融學教授阿瓦尼德哈·蘇布拉馬尼亞姆(Avanidhar Subrahmanyam)說，“人們感到恐慌，應激激素就會發揮作用。”
一個問題是，蘋果是散戶投資者最喜歡的個股之一，投資公司SigFig估計，去年秋天有17%的散戶投資者持有蘋果股票，比道瓊斯(Dow Jones)工業平均指數所涵蓋個股的平均持有人數高三倍。
散戶投資者的交易可以通過對沖基金得以擴大，對沖基金公司看到投資者每天湧入，於是就通過做空，向相反的發展方向推動，認定股價會下跌。根據納斯達克(Nasdaq)的數據，蘋果公司所謂的賣空股數在去年11月達到最高點，此後，一直沒有出現太大的下降。
紐約大學(New York University)金融學教授阿斯瓦斯·達莫達蘭(Aswath Damodaran)表示，去年人們對蘋果的投資熱情，促使他出售了自己持有的蘋果股票，當時股價在610美元左右。
“我被那些爭相購買蘋果股票的投資者嚇到了，”達莫達蘭說，“他們在買進時不僅懷有不切實際的期望，他們還互相競爭。”
達莫達蘭最近又開始買進了，因為他認為人們的擔憂過度了。
他說，“目前看蘋果的股價，就彷彿它未來不再有增長空間一樣。”
的確，按照最常用的衡量股價的方式判斷，即計算該公司為每一股流通股產生的利潤，蘋果股價似乎確實很廉價。標準普爾500指數(Standard & Poor's 500)涵蓋公司的平均水平是，投資者願意花15美元換得1美元的利潤。但對於蘋果，他們願意花的錢少於9美元。
以目前的價格來看，投資者認為蘋果業績的增長會比一般的美國公司更緩慢。他們還忽略了蘋果積攢的大量現金，如果蘋果公司願意，它明天就可以將這些現金派發給股東們。
蘋果公司擁有現金，但很明顯，該公司不知道該如何使用這筆現金。有人認為這是導致蘋果股票近期表現糟糕的一個原因。
伯恩斯坦研究公司(Bernstein Research)分析師托尼·薩克納吉(Toni Sacconaghi)表示，如果蘋果制定出明確的方案，將其中一些現金當作紅利派發給股東，就會對蘋果的股價帶來幫助，可能會推動其股價上漲10%甚至 更多。但這也不會使蘋果股價重回巔峰時期的水平。他指出，看跌的投資者認為蘋果存在更大的問題，這個問題更為明確：增長陷入停頓。
他說，“這就是現在的情況。”
蘋果公司將於下周二發佈第二個財政季度的業績報告，薩克納吉預測，由於利潤較少的一些產品降低了其利潤率，蘋果的凈收入將會減少18%。2012年同期，蘋果的凈收入同比增長將近100%。
但這畢竟是蘋果，一個生產出世界上一些最受歡迎產品的公司。雖然喬布斯已經不在了，但幾乎所有與他一同工作的人都還在蘋果公司。
有一件事是肯定的：對於像派傑(Piper Jaffray)分析師基尼·蒙斯特(Gene Munster)這樣看好蘋果股票的人來說，這種態度的轉變是一個巨大的變化。他仍然認為未來有大量的增長機遇。他舉例說，蘋果可以在移動支付領域扮演重要角色。
但看好蘋果，可不是件容易的事情。
“這就好像是每天上班時都在挨打，”蒙斯特說，“投資者們非常悲觀，他們想要向其他人發泄這種情緒。我感覺我就是他們的發泄對象。”
華爾街一度視蘋果公司(Apple)為它的i寵兒，但現在卻對它滿懷惡意。周四，蘋果股價下跌近2.7%。由此，它自去年9月以來已累積重挫44%。蘋果股價的暴跌，已經讓許多人開始思考，這種局面什麼時候、到什麼地步才會結束。
然而由於蘋果在股市的下挫如此之快、如此激烈，這樣的情景已經開始改變投資者對蘋果公司的看法。蘋果的前景已經不再顯得那麼肯定了。
對於近幾年來股市上表現出色的個股之一，蘋果股價的轉變很值得一提。僅僅7個月前，蘋果的股價還衝過了700美元，創下歷史高位，蘋果公司也成為了地球上最有價值的公司。周四，該公司股價已經跌至392.05美元，這是2011年底以來，收市價首次跌破400美元。
造成周四下跌最可能的原因是本周的一則新聞，蘋果的一家供應商出現了音頻芯片積壓。這進而又促使人們產生了iPhone銷量低於預期的擔憂。
不過這也只是股價看跌的幾個月時間裡，又一則負面的消息而已。從去年9月以來，蘋果公司市值已經蒸發了2900億美元。這可能看來難以置信，但是現 在，蘋果已成為過去7個月中市值損失最多的公司之一，跟在美國彭尼公司(J. C. Penney Company)之後，後者可是美國百貨商店領域裡的病夫。蘋果股價上一次跌到這個程度是在2011年11月，當時史蒂夫·喬布斯(Steve Jobs)剛剛去世，所有人都在思考，蘋果離開了這位遠見卓識的領導人物，該怎樣繼續前進。
除了股價之外，現在的蘋果公司與當時相比規模已經更大了，從某些角度衡量，也更強了。蘋果公司iPhone和iPad的銷量比以往任何時候都要多， 在全球市場的覆蓋也在不斷擴大。而且蘋果公司太賺錢了，以至於都搞不明白該拿這些現金做些什麼了。分析人士預期，該公司下周還會再發佈一份喜人的季度業績 報告。普遍的預測是，蘋果會以增發股息的形式，將一部分現金交給股東。
在某種程度上，蘋果的經歷在華爾街上是很常見的，會漲上去，自然就會降下來。隨着蘋果股價在近幾年的飆升，有人指出該公司的銷售額以及股價，並不會一直以這樣的速度上升。回過頭看，有人會認為蘋果股價突破700美元並不理智，大幅跌回400美元也一樣。
“由於上揚時投資者過於樂觀，導致在股價調整時出現羊群效應和恐慌，”加州大學洛杉磯分校(UCLA)行為金融學教授阿瓦尼德哈·蘇布拉馬尼亞姆(Avanidhar Subrahmanyam)說，“人們感到恐慌，應激激素就會發揮作用。”
一個問題是，蘋果是散戶投資者最喜歡的個股之一，投資公司SigFig估計，去年秋天有17%的散戶投資者持有蘋果股票，比道瓊斯(Dow Jones)工業平均指數所涵蓋個股的平均持有人數高三倍。
散戶投資者的交易可以通過對沖基金得以擴大，對沖基金公司看到投資者每天湧入，於是就通過做空，向相反的發展方向推動，認定股價會下跌。根據納斯達克(Nasdaq)的數據，蘋果公司所謂的賣空股數在去年11月達到最高點，此後，一直沒有出現太大的下降。
紐約大學(New York University)金融學教授阿斯瓦斯·達莫達蘭(Aswath Damodaran)表示，去年人們對蘋果的投資熱情，促使他出售了自己持有的蘋果股票，當時股價在610美元左右。
“我被那些爭相購買蘋果股票的投資者嚇到了，”達莫達蘭說，“他們在買進時不僅懷有不切實際的期望，他們還互相競爭。”
達莫達蘭最近又開始買進了，因為他認為人們的擔憂過度了。
他說，“目前看蘋果的股價，就彷彿它未來不再有增長空間一樣。”
的確，按照最常用的衡量股價的方式判斷，即計算該公司為每一股流通股產生的利潤，蘋果股價似乎確實很廉價。標準普爾500指數(Standard & Poor's 500)涵蓋公司的平均水平是，投資者願意花15美元換得1美元的利潤。但對於蘋果，他們願意花的錢少於9美元。
以目前的價格來看，投資者認為蘋果業績的增長會比一般的美國公司更緩慢。他們還忽略了蘋果積攢的大量現金，如果蘋果公司願意，它明天就可以將這些現金派發給股東們。
蘋果公司擁有現金，但很明顯，該公司不知道該如何使用這筆現金。有人認為這是導致蘋果股票近期表現糟糕的一個原因。
伯恩斯坦研究公司(Bernstein Research)分析師托尼·薩克納吉(Toni Sacconaghi)表示，如果蘋果制定出明確的方案，將其中一些現金當作紅利派發給股東，就會對蘋果的股價帶來幫助，可能會推動其股價上漲10%甚至 更多。但這也不會使蘋果股價重回巔峰時期的水平。他指出，看跌的投資者認為蘋果存在更大的問題，這個問題更為明確：增長陷入停頓。
他說，“這就是現在的情況。”
蘋果公司將於下周二發佈第二個財政季度的業績報告，薩克納吉預測，由於利潤較少的一些產品降低了其利潤率，蘋果的凈收入將會減少18%。2012年同期，蘋果的凈收入同比增長將近100%。
但這畢竟是蘋果，一個生產出世界上一些最受歡迎產品的公司。雖然喬布斯已經不在了，但幾乎所有與他一同工作的人都還在蘋果公司。
有一件事是肯定的：對於像派傑(Piper Jaffray)分析師基尼·蒙斯特(Gene Munster)這樣看好蘋果股票的人來說，這種態度的轉變是一個巨大的變化。他仍然認為未來有大量的增長機遇。他舉例說，蘋果可以在移動支付領域扮演重要角色。
但看好蘋果，可不是件容易的事情。
“這就好像是每天上班時都在挨打，”蒙斯特說，“投資者們非常悲觀，他們想要向其他人發泄這種情緒。我感覺我就是他們的發泄對象。”
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