【科技】亞馬遜要向UPS和阿里巴巴宣戰
近幾周盛傳亞馬遜（Amazon.com）計畫開創全球物流業務，與UPS和聯邦快遞（FedEx）競爭。在1月28日的財報電話會議上，有人就亞馬遜租用飛機、註冊海運公司等自建物流的報導詢問了首席財務官奧爾薩夫斯基（Brian Olsavsky），他說那是要在物流旺季作為其他公司的補充，不是要取代它們。
亞馬遜的內部文件揭示的計畫則比這個大膽的多。一份在高階主管層傳閱的2013年報告提出，亞馬遜配送服務（FBA）可以進行大規模的全球擴張，這項服務會向透過亞馬遜出售商品的獨立商戶提供倉儲、包裝和物流。報告勾畫了一張全球物流網路，可以控制從中國和印度的工廠到亞特蘭大、紐約、倫敦顧客家門口的貨物流向全程。這項被稱為「龍舟」（Dragon Boat）的計畫正在快馬加鞭地進行。
這項戰略意味著亞馬遜將和聯邦快遞、UPS更直接競爭，此外還有中國電商領頭羊阿里巴巴。阿里巴巴和亞馬遜一樣在爭奪國際電商的主導權。據埃森哲（Accenture）和阿里巴巴的研究機構阿里研究院（AliResearch）在六月發佈的一份報告，電商市場到2020年將突破一萬億美元，擁有九億購物者。
內部文件稱，亞馬遜最快在今年就會創立一個叫做亞馬遜全球供應鏈（Global Supply Chain by Amazon）的事業專案。它的目標是將亞馬遜置於一個物流產業的中央，這個產業過去包括聯邦快遞、UPS等託運商，以及眾多負責跨國貨運和手續的中間商。一旦繞過這些中間人，亞馬遜可以把全球成千上萬的商戶的貨品匯聚到一起，以更低的價格購買卡車、飛機和貨船的空間。商戶可以在網上一鍵索取貨櫃空間。
據這份計畫提案稱，亞馬遜會和協力廠商貨運公司一同營建這個全球企劃，等到積聚起足夠的業務量，而亞馬遜也掌握了充分的運營知識後，再將它們逐步排擠出去。下一步可以是金融服務，亞馬遜向商戶提供貸款，辦理國際支付，為自己的賣家網路提供海關和稅務方面的諮詢。
這項戰略讓人想起亞馬遜進入雲服務的過程，如今該業務正飛速發展，成為盈利最高的部門。亞馬遜的雲業務在早年不事聲張，選擇直接面向軟體發展者推廣。像惠普（Hewlett-Packard）、戴爾（Dell）、微軟（Microsoft）這樣的公司基本上忽視了它的威脅，如今只能在後面追。
「這是經典的亞馬遜風格，」金融服務公司貝雅（Robert W. Baird）分析師塞巴斯蒂安（Colin Sebastian）說，他認為公司的物流業務可能成為一個價值4000億美元的生意。「他們在用很小的步幅走一條漫長的路，這就讓一些可能會被顛覆的公司繼續拒絕面對現實。亞馬遜很少一下子走出一大步，給市場帶來震動。」
亞馬遜預計會有越來越多的商品從一個國家的賣家流向另一個國家的買家，因此在2013年制定了全球物流戰略。它手中掌握著美國和歐洲的網路購物者，這吸引了中國和印度的商家，「龍舟」計畫就是要拉近兩者的距離。在提案中，亞馬遜稱新的物流業務會讓一些小型商戶能參與跨境貿易，在此之前他們根本不會往這方面想。反過來也讓世界各地的亞馬遜購物者有更多商品可選。
方案提出三年後，有跡象表明該計畫即將成為現實。一月，三藩市物流公司Flexport在一篇網誌中指出，亞馬遜的中國分公司已經在美國註冊，向其他公司提供海運服務。一月前，一名瞭解計畫內情的人說，亞馬遜考慮租用20架波音767運輸機，以進一步控制其物流成本。「有一點很明白，」電商分析公司Stella Service行政總裁萊瑟（Jordy Leiser）說，「亞馬遜希望把它的優勢轉化為錢。」——Spencer Soper；譯 經雷
亞馬遜的內部文件揭示的計畫則比這個大膽的多。一份在高階主管層傳閱的2013年報告提出，亞馬遜配送服務（FBA）可以進行大規模的全球擴張，這項服務會向透過亞馬遜出售商品的獨立商戶提供倉儲、包裝和物流。報告勾畫了一張全球物流網路，可以控制從中國和印度的工廠到亞特蘭大、紐約、倫敦顧客家門口的貨物流向全程。這項被稱為「龍舟」（Dragon Boat）的計畫正在快馬加鞭地進行。
這項戰略意味著亞馬遜將和聯邦快遞、UPS更直接競爭，此外還有中國電商領頭羊阿里巴巴。阿里巴巴和亞馬遜一樣在爭奪國際電商的主導權。據埃森哲（Accenture）和阿里巴巴的研究機構阿里研究院（AliResearch）在六月發佈的一份報告，電商市場到2020年將突破一萬億美元，擁有九億購物者。
內部文件稱，亞馬遜最快在今年就會創立一個叫做亞馬遜全球供應鏈（Global Supply Chain by Amazon）的事業專案。它的目標是將亞馬遜置於一個物流產業的中央，這個產業過去包括聯邦快遞、UPS等託運商，以及眾多負責跨國貨運和手續的中間商。一旦繞過這些中間人，亞馬遜可以把全球成千上萬的商戶的貨品匯聚到一起，以更低的價格購買卡車、飛機和貨船的空間。商戶可以在網上一鍵索取貨櫃空間。
據這份計畫提案稱，亞馬遜會和協力廠商貨運公司一同營建這個全球企劃，等到積聚起足夠的業務量，而亞馬遜也掌握了充分的運營知識後，再將它們逐步排擠出去。下一步可以是金融服務，亞馬遜向商戶提供貸款，辦理國際支付，為自己的賣家網路提供海關和稅務方面的諮詢。
這項戰略讓人想起亞馬遜進入雲服務的過程，如今該業務正飛速發展，成為盈利最高的部門。亞馬遜的雲業務在早年不事聲張，選擇直接面向軟體發展者推廣。像惠普（Hewlett-Packard）、戴爾（Dell）、微軟（Microsoft）這樣的公司基本上忽視了它的威脅，如今只能在後面追。
「這是經典的亞馬遜風格，」金融服務公司貝雅（Robert W. Baird）分析師塞巴斯蒂安（Colin Sebastian）說，他認為公司的物流業務可能成為一個價值4000億美元的生意。「他們在用很小的步幅走一條漫長的路，這就讓一些可能會被顛覆的公司繼續拒絕面對現實。亞馬遜很少一下子走出一大步，給市場帶來震動。」
亞馬遜預計會有越來越多的商品從一個國家的賣家流向另一個國家的買家，因此在2013年制定了全球物流戰略。它手中掌握著美國和歐洲的網路購物者，這吸引了中國和印度的商家，「龍舟」計畫就是要拉近兩者的距離。在提案中，亞馬遜稱新的物流業務會讓一些小型商戶能參與跨境貿易，在此之前他們根本不會往這方面想。反過來也讓世界各地的亞馬遜購物者有更多商品可選。
方案提出三年後，有跡象表明該計畫即將成為現實。一月，三藩市物流公司Flexport在一篇網誌中指出，亞馬遜的中國分公司已經在美國註冊，向其他公司提供海運服務。一月前，一名瞭解計畫內情的人說，亞馬遜考慮租用20架波音767運輸機，以進一步控制其物流成本。「有一點很明白，」電商分析公司Stella Service行政總裁萊瑟（Jordy Leiser）說，「亞馬遜希望把它的優勢轉化為錢。」——Spencer Soper；譯 經雷
Is it totally crazy or worth considering?
Amazon's aspirations of building a global logistics operation have spurred rumblings about whether a takeover of FedEx may be a cheaper and swifter means to an end. Is there any merit to the idea?
At the very least, it's an interesting thought experiment.
At the very least, it's an interesting thought experiment.
First, let's look at the pros. In an effort to curtail rising shipping costs, Amazon has built a bevy of distribution centers and tested alternative delivery methods. The $245 billion e-commerce giant reportedly wants to turn those logistics baby steps into a full-blown delivery network that can ferry goods from China to New York. Buying FedEx would certainly get Amazon a ready-made global operation in a hurry.
MERGER MATH
FedEx had 656 planes in its Express division as of November and uses about 200,000 vehicles and trailers across its network. It also pays some 300,000 employees to make the whole thing work. Building up that kind of system would take at least a decade, if not much longer. For one thing, Boeing and other aircraft suppliers don't just have 500 planes sitting around for the taking.
Whether it's cheaper or not depends on how big you think Amazon's logistics ambitions are. If it wanted to build a network identical to FedEx, we're talking at least tens of billions of dollars for the planes alone. Say Amazon wanted to start out with about 180 medium-body freighter planes and 20 wide-body freighters for bigger trips. Even taking into account some degree of a discount for buying in bulk, a plane order of that size could run Amazon in the range of $12 billion, according to estimates from Kevin Sterling of BB&T. And that would give it just a third of FedEx's air fleet without any trucks, real estate or additional employees.
Once you start tabulating that all up, maybe it is easier to just buy FedEx. Any buyer would probably have to pay a premium to the company's all-time high in June of $184.98. That puts a deal in the range of $60 billion, including debt. It's not chump change, but Amazon has about a third of that in cash and equivalents already. It's at least conceivable financially.
Once you start tabulating that all up, maybe it is easier to just buy FedEx. Any buyer would probably have to pay a premium to the company's all-time high in June of $184.98. That puts a deal in the range of $60 billion, including debt. It's not chump change, but Amazon has about a third of that in cash and equivalents already. It's at least conceivable financially.
Packaged With A Premium
FedEx has slumped amid a few quarters of underwhelming earnings, but any buyer would likely have to pay a premium to its June high.
Source: Bloomberg
Now for the cons. Amazon doesn't really want to be FedEx. It wants to control its own (smaller) version of FedEx. In that respect, a deal really wouldn't be all that cheap.
There's an obvious benefit to Amazon in taking control over the delivery of goods sold on its site and those of smaller merchants with which it has a relationship. There's far less appeal in ferrying a package from my mom in Kansas to me in New York, for example. As noted here, it's also highly unlikely that major merchants such as Wal-Mart that compete with Amazon would want to use the e-commerce retailer for shipping services.
Of course, Amazon could just leave these types of deliveries to other providers, but then why would it go to the trouble of paying for all those capabilities in a FedEx acquisition? The point is, FedEx comes with some extra baggage that Amazon probably doesn't want or wouldn't be able to use to its advantage. That's not worth a premium.
Amazon still has work to do to build out a global logistics operation, but it's already taken those baby steps. It has more than 100 fulfillment facilities globally, sorting centers that function as hubs and an intercity delivery network in some areas. It could close the gaps in its current network for a quarter of what it would cost to buy FedEx, says Satish Jindel, a logistics consultant.
One way to do that could be through a series of smaller deals for regional carriers. Amazon already works with a number of these providers, which can offer faster and cheaper delivery than the national providers within their respective areas. Buying a few of these regional operators, such as closely held LaserShip Inc., would help give Amazon more control of the so-called "last mile" aspect of its delivery operations that it currently outsources -- without a $50 billion-plus tab.
Another option may be Air Transport Services Group. The company has a fleet of the Boeing 767 freighters that Amazon has reportedly expressed an interest in and Air Transport is adding flights for an unnamed customer widely believed to be Amazon. With a market value of about $740 million, it's a bargain way to add air transport capabilities.
That's more Amazon's style anyway. The biggest deal the company has done -- and its only one worth more than $1 billion -- was a real estate purchase. Amazon's preferred method is to work with and learn from partners, and then run them out of town (see: Borders). All signs point to it trying to do a similar thing in the shipping industry.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg LP and its owners.
- Actual prices are difficult to determine because buyers get a discount to the catalog price. The price may be lower than estimated if the discounts are more substantial.
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